Traffic accidents prediction model based on fuzzy logic

Abstract

Traffic accidents prediction has an important meaning to the improvement of traffic safety management, and urban traffic accidents prediction model which based on fuzzy logic is taken forward in this paper by contrasting to traditional traffic accidents prediction models. This model is trained and tested by the traffic and traffic accident data of 133 Harbin city roads, and finally gets a fuzzy logic prediction model which has 41 effective rules. The test result shows that there is a good relationship between the observed numbers and predicted numbers. Thus, prediction of the urban traffic accidents by fuzzy logic is viable. Besides, the concept of safety improvement factor is taken forward, which can be used to find out the prominent influence factors of high risk road and then to improve the safety of these roads. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.