Attribution of production-stage methane emissions to assess spatial variability in the climate intensity of US natural gas consumption

Abstract

Although natural gas is often viewed as a commodity fuel with limited variability due to standardization for pipeline transportation, life cycle impacts of natural gas vary substantially. Greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity is one of the most policy-relevant environmental characteristics of natural gas, particularly as decarbonization efforts proceed. Given that natural gas is mostly methane, a powerful GHG, methane emissions from the natural gas system contribute substantially to the GHG intensity of natural gas. Research has established that methane emissions from natural gas systems are climatically relevant and higher than long understood, in part due to variation in production-stage emissions by basin. This work combines recent estimates of basin-level US production-stage methane emissions, data on US natural gas production, consumption, and trade, and a spatial evaluation of pipeline connections between production basins and consumer states to generate first-order estimates of the production-stage methane emissions intensity of natural gas consumed in the United States. Although natural gas is a commodity product, the environmental footprint of a given unit of natural gas varies based on its origin and infrastructural needs. We find that production-stage methane emissions intensity of delivered natural gas by state varies from 0.9% to 3.6% (mass methane emitted from natural gas production sites per mass methane withdrawn). These production-stage emissions add 16%-65% (global warming potential (GWP)-100; 38%-157%, GWP-20) to combustion carbon dioxide emissions. Other sources of life cycle methane emissions downstream of production can be similar in magnitude. Natural gas consumed in Arizona, Kansas, and New Mexico has the highest estimated production-stage methane emissions intensity, largely due to reliance on high-emission basins. Limitations include emissions-related data gaps and sensitivity to allocation approaches, but results demonstrate decision-relevant variability in the GHG impact of natural gas.