Estimation of minimum miscibility pressure during CO2 flooding in hydrocarbon reservoirs using an optimized neural network

Abstract

CO2 flooding recovery strongly depends on the minimum miscibility pressure (MMP). Conventional tests to determine gas–oil MMP such as rising bubble apparatus and slim tube displacement are either costly or time consuming. In order to propose a quick and accurate model to determine MMP, a back-propagation neural network is presented for MMP prediction during pure and impure CO2 injections. Five new variables were screened as input parameters to the network. Next, the network was optimized using five evolutionary algorithms, and this work highlights that three of these evolutionary algorithms (e.g. Mind Evolutionary, Artificial Bee Colony, and Dragonfly) are firstly used to predict MMP. Then, data from the literature were input to the optimized network to train it. Statistical evaluation and graphical analyses were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed models and for comparison with published MMP correlates to obtain the optimal model for predicting MMP. The back-propagation model optimized using the dragonfly algorithm exhibited the highest accuracy among all those considered and MMP correlates; its coefficient of determination, average absolute percent relative error, root mean square error, and standard deviation were 0.965, 5.79%, 206.1, and 0.08, respectively. In addition, reservoir temperature was determined as the strongest MMP predictor (Pearson correlation = 0.63) based on sensitivity analysis.