Uncertain Adolescent Educational Expectations and College Matriculation in the Wake of the Great Recession

Abstract

Though contemporary adolescents in the United States have ambitious educational goals, a sizable number of youth express uncertainty about their future educational attainment. Using data from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (n = 17,340), we investigate whether uncertainty in educational expectations in adolescence is associated with college matriculation and dropout. Approximately 21% of youth expressed uncertainty about their future educational attainment, and the odds of attending college were lower among uncertain teens compared to youth who expected at least 4-year degrees. Among college matriculants, however, uncertain expectations in adolescence did not increase the risk of early college dropout.