The Macroeconomic Implications of Housing Supply Restrictions

Abstract

Housing supply restrictions, including historic preservation policies, minimum lot sizes and height limitations, are typically approached with static Pigouvian tools, but these policies also have dynamic implications. Restricted supply will typically make quantities, which determine construction employment, less volatile, and prices, which determine financial stability, more volatile. A prominent exception occurs when supply-unconstrained areas build so much during a boom that construction halts during the bust, and in that case, elastic supply can be associated with both price volatility and a limited ability to use credit instruments to boost employment during a bust. As institutions with counter-cyclical missions grapple with housing policies, they must recognize that housing regulation interacts with monetary policy, and that reforming housing policy may have implications for the business cycle.