Capsize probability analysis for a small container vessel

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the long term capsize probability for a small container vessel which is operated in a regular service schedule on the North Sea and the north-east part of the Atlantic Ocean. The numerical simulation techniques involved are a ship route scenario simulation method and a time domain simulation method for large amplitude ship motions. From the combined statistics of the scenario simulations and the ship motion simulations we derive the capsize probability. Finally, the effect of avoiding bad weather conditions on the short term and long term capsize probability is discussed. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011.