Long-term prediction of changes in health status, frailty, nursing care and mortality in community-dwelling senior citizens - Results from the longitudinal urban cohort ageing study (LUCAS)

Abstract

Background: The detection of incipient functional decline in elderly persons is not an easy task. Here, we propose the self-reporting Functional Ability Index (FA index) suitable to screen functional competence in senior citizens in the community setting. Its prognostic validity was investigated in the Longitudinal Urban Cohort Ageing Study (LUCAS). Methods: This index is based equally on both, resources and risks/functional restrictions which precede ADL limitations. Since 2001, the FA index was tested in the LUCAS cohort without any ADL restrictions at baseline (n = 1,679), and followed up by repeated questionnaires in Hamburg, Germany. Results: Applying the index, 1,022 LUCAS participants were initially classified as Robust (60.9%), 220 as postRobust (13.1%), 172 as preFrail (10.2%) and 265 as Frail (15.8%). This classification correlated with self-reported health, chronic pain and depressive mood (rank correlations 0.42, 0.26, 0.21; all p < .0001). Survival analyses showed significant differences between these classes as determined by the FA index: the initially Robust survived longest, the Frail shortest (p