Real-world hospital mortality of liver cirrhosis inpatients in Japan: a large-scale cohort study using a medical claims database: Prognosis of liver cirrhosis

Abstract

Aim: Prognosis of liver cirrhosis patients is poor when ascites is present and liver function is impaired, but such up-to-date information from a large-scale, real-world setting is limited in Japan. We aimed to investigate the hospital mortality of Japanese liver cirrhosis inpatients. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included data on liver cirrhosis inpatients between January 2011 and September 2018 extracted from an administrative claims database. The outcome was in-hospital mortality. The 1- and 3-year cumulative survival rates were examined for liver cirrhosis etiology, Child–Pugh classification, or ascites presence/absence using Kaplan–Meier analysis. The survival up to 1 year for tolvaptan prescription/nonprescription was examined. Results: We analyzed the data of 57 769 inpatients. Survival rates did not substantially differ among etiologies, with a better prognosis for alcohol etiology and poorer prognosis for hepatitis C virus. According to the Child–Pugh classification, the 1- and 3-year survival rates were 90.2% and 75.3% for grade A, 73.5% and 53.9% for grade B, and 41.9% and 28.9% for grade C, respectively. Patients without ascites had a higher survival rate (83.2% and 67.0% at 1 and 3 years, respectively) than those with ascites (51.9% and 36.3%, respectively). Based on examining matched patients with ascites using a propensity score, prognosis was poor in general but was better at 6 months (58.1%) or similar at 1 year (47.1%) in patients prescribed tolvaptan compared to those not prescribed tolvaptan (54.8% and 47.5%, respectively). Conclusions: Poorer prognosis was suggested in inpatients with cirrhosis who had a worse Child–Pugh grade and ascites.