Sea level rise-drived simulations of social and economic impact on Taihu Lake Basin

Abstract

This paper takes Taihu Lake Basin as the research area, predicting population and GDP values of every city and county until 2030 with Bootstrap method. Based on sea level-ground system evolution model, it further carries on multi-scenario simulation and evaluation of social and economic impact on the areas where sea level rises until 2030. The result shows: when the value of sea level rise is 23cm, 31cm and 60cm, the affected area, population, and GDP loss will amount to 13.2% ~ 24.0%, 8.6% ~ 16.3% and 15.7% ~ 26.9% respectively. The potential impact of sea level rise in Taihu Lake Basin is characterized by regional differentiation. As cities and counties with developed social economy are located in low and flat areas, the impact of sea level rise is more significant. Strategies like area-classified management and regional cooperation should be taken into consideration in future regional development to respond the potential threats from sea level rise. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013.