Postprandial glucose improves the risk prediction of cardiovascular death beyond the metabolic syndrome in the nondiabetic population

Abstract

OBJECTIVE - With increasing evidence about the cardiovascular risk associated with post-prandial nonfasting glucose and lipid dysmetabolism, it remains uncertain whether the post-prandial glucose concentration increases the ability of metabolic syndrome to predict cardiovascular events. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - This was an observational study of 15,145 individuals aged 35-75 years without diabetes or cardiovascular diseases. Postprandial glucose was obtained 2 h after a lunch meal. Metabolic syndrome was diagnosed using the criteria of the U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III. Cardiovascular and all-cause deaths were primary outcomes. RESULTS - During a median follow-up of 6.7 years, 410 individuals died, including 82 deaths from cardiovascular causes. In a Cox model adjusting for metabolic syndrome status as well as age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, LDL, and HDL cholesterol levels, elevated 2-h postprandial glucose increased the risk of cardiovascular and all-cause death (per millimole per liter increase, hazard ratio 1.26 [95% CI 1.11-1.42] and 1.10 [1.04 -1.16], respectively), with significant trends across the postprandial glucose quintiles. Including 2-h postprandial glucose into a metabolic syndrome-included multivariate risk prediction model conferred a discernible improvement of the model in discriminating between those who died of cardiovascular causes and who did not (integrated discrimination improvement 0.4, P = 0.005; net reclassification improvement 13.4%, P = 0.03); however, the improvement was only marginal for all-cause death. CONCLUSIONS - Given the risk prediction based on metabolic syndrome and established cardiovascular risk factors, 2-h postprandial glucose improves the predictive ability to identity nondiabetic individuals at increased risk of cardiovascular death. © 2009 by the American Diabetes Association.