Estimating the spatial risk of tuberculosis distribution in Gurage zone, southern Ethiopia: A geostatistical kriging approach

Abstract

Background: In low-income countries it is difficult to obtain complete data that show spatial heterogeneity in the risk of tuberculosis within-and-between smaller administrative units. This may contribute to the partial effectiveness of tuberculosis control programs. The aim of this study was to estimate the spatial risk of tuberculosis distribution in Gurage Zone, Southern Ethiopia using limited spatial datasets. Methods: A total of 1601 patient data that were retrieved from unit tuberculosis registers were included in the final analyses. The population and geo-location data were obtained from the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia. Altitude data were extracted from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model Version 2. Aggregated datasets from sample of 169(40%), 254(60%) and 338(80%) kebeles were used to estimate the spatial risk of TB distribution in the Gurage Zone by using a geostatistical kriging approach. The best set of input parameters were decided based on the lowest prediction error criteria of the cross-validation technique. ArcGIS 10.2 was used for the spatial data analyses. Results: The best semivariogram models were the Pentaspherical, Rational Quadratic, and K-Bessel for the 40, 60 and 80% spatial datasets, respectively. The predictive accuracies of the models have improved with the true anisotropy, altitude and latitude covariates, the change in detrending pattern from local to global, and the increase in size of spatial dataset. The risk of tuberculosis was estimated to be higher at western, northwest, southwest and southeast parts of the study area, and crossed between high and low at west-central parts. Conclusion: This study has underlined that the geostatistical kriging approach can be applied to estimate the spatial risk of tuberculosis distribution in data limited settings. The estimation results may help local public health authorities measure burden of the disease at all locations, identify geographical areas that require more attention, and evaluate the impacts of intervention programs.