Probabilistic modeling and statistical characteristics of aggregate wind power

Abstract

The stochasticity of the electrical power output by wind turbines poses special challenges to power system operation and planning. Increasing penetration levels of wind and other weather-driven renewable resources exacerbate the uncertainty and variability that must be managed. This chapter focuses on the probabilistic modeling and statistical characteristics of aggregated wind power in large electrical systems. The mathematical framework for probabilistic models-accounting for geographic diversity and the smoothing effect-is developed, and the selection and application of parametric models is discussed. Statistical characteristics from several real systems with high levels of wind power penetration are provided and analyzed. © Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2014.