Modeling the implications of stock mixing and life history uncertainty of Atlantic bluefin tuna

Abstract

Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) is currently managed as two separate eastern and western stocks, despite information indicating considerable stock mixing. Using a simulation model, we explored how scenarios of population-specific migration and uncertainty in aspects of bluefin tuna biology affect the magnitude, distribution, and mixed stock nature of the resource and catch of its associated fisheries. The analytical framework was a stochastic, age-structured, stock-overlap model that was seasonally and spatially explicit with movement of eastern- and western-origin tuna informed by tagging and otolith chemistry data. Alternate estimates of movement and assumptions regarding maturity and recruitment regime for westernorigin fish were considered. Simulation of the operating model indicated considerable stock mixing in the western and central Atlantic, which resulted in differences between the stock and population view of western bluefin tuna. The relative biomass of the western population and its spatial and temporal distribution in the Atlantic was sensitive to model assumptions and configurations. Simulation modeling can provide a means to ascertain the potential consequences of stock mixing on the assessment and management of fishery resources.