Cumulative Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Hepatitis C Virus Carriers: Statistical Estimations from Cross‐sectional Data

Abstract

The probability of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among hepatitis C virus (HCV) carriers during their life‐time is unknown. This paper addresses the estimation of the cumulative risk of HCC among HCV carriers using cross‐sectional data. Age‐specific prevalences of HCV carriers among the general population were estimated according to 5‐year age group, based on the data of 2nd‐generation anti‐HCV assay in blood donors resident in Osaka (33,226 males and 29,054 females). Seropositivity of anti‐HCV among 422 HCC cases, and the Osaka Cancer Registry data on HCC were used in the estimations of 5‐year age‐specific incidence rates of HCV‐linked HCC. Using these data, the cumulative risk, i.e., the probability of contracting HCC within the following 15 years in 50‐year‐old HCV carriers, was estimated as 28% for males and 6% for females. Copyright © 1994, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved