Quantitative Analysis of Impact of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Water Resources Change in Suzhou City

Abstract

Assessing the contribution of climate variability and human activities to Suzhou's water resources change is important to the design of water resources and provide technical support for the overall planning of Suzhou sponge city. Based on Suzhou hydrology history data, Mann-Kendall method and linear regression method is used to study the change trend of more than 50 years of Suzhou rainfall runoff evaporation, coupled with Mann-Kendall method to validate the abrupt change point of the annual runoff series. The elasticity method is used to analysis the contribution of climate variability and human activities, to explore the main cause of the change of the runoff. The results show that the overall trend of rainfall over the years is increasing, the overall trend of runoff over the years is significantly increasing, and the overall trend of evaporation over the years is decreasing, and a sudden change occurred in 1991. climate variability in Suzhou is the main factor of runoff change, contributing 58.52% and contributing 41.48% to human activities.