Increasing coastal exposure to extreme wave events in the Alaskan Arctic as the open water season expands

Abstract

Declining Arctic sea ice over recent decades has been linked to growth in coastal hazards affecting the Alaskan Arctic. In this study, climate model projections of sea ice are utilized in the simulation of an extratropical cyclone to quantify how future changes in seasonal ice coverage could affect coastal waves caused by this extreme event. All future scenarios and decades show an increase in coastal wave heights, demonstrating how an extended season of open water in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas could expose Alaskan Arctic shorelines to wave hazards resulting from such a storm event for an additional winter month by 2050 and up to three additional months by 2070 depending on climate pathway. Additionally, for the Beaufort coastal region, future scenarios agree that a coastal wave saturation limit is reached during the sea ice minimum, where historically sea ice would provide a degree of protection throughout the year.