A synoptic analysis of the interannual variability of winter cyclone activity in the Aleutian low region

Abstract

An analysis of cyclone activity in winter associated with years of strong and weak Aleutian low in the North Pacific is presented. From 1958 to 2004, 10 winters with a strong Aleutian low are defined as the strong years, while 8 winters with a weak Aleutian low are defined as the weak years. Employing a system-centered Lagrangian method, some characteristics of the cyclone activity in both sets of years are revealed. The cyclone frequency, duration, and intensity are nearly the same in both strong and weak years. The cyclone tracks in the strong years are more zonal than those in the weak years. More intense cyclone events and more large cyclone cases occur in strong years than in weak years and the deepening of cyclones in strong years is stronger than that in weak years. The analyses of geopotential height, wind, stationary Rossby wavenumber, and Eady growth rate index at 500 or 300 hPa reveal that conditions are favorable for more zonal tracks and greater cyclone growth in strong years than in weak years. An estimation of the relative change of cyclone intensity and the relative change of Aleutian low intensity is made, which shows that the interannual change of cyclone intensity is about 73% of the interannual change of Aleutian low intensity. This result suggests that the evolution of individual cyclones may be a significant driver of changes in the Aleutian low. © 2007 American Meteorological Society.