The Colorado River water crisis: Its origin and the future

Abstract

During much of the 21st century, natural runoff in the Colorado River basin has declined, while consumption has remained relatively constant, leading to historically low reservoir storage. Between January 2000 and April 2023, the amount of water stored in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two largest reservoirs in the United States, declined by 33.5 million acre feet (41.3 billion cubic meters). As of April 2023, total basin-wide storage was sufficient to support the 21st century average rate of basin-wide consumption for only 15 months. Runoff in spring 2023 is predicted to be large, providing a short-term reprieve. However, it will take four to five additional unusually wet years in succession to refill Lake Powell and Lake Mead if basin-wide water use remains unchanged. Increasing evapotranspiration and dry soils associated with global climate change makes such a scenario unlikely. To stabilize reservoir storage, basin-wide use needs to equal modern runoff. To recover reservoir storage, basin-wide use needs to decline even more. Based on 21st century average runoff, a 13%–20% decline in basin-wide use would allow for stabilization and some reservoir storage recovery. Future policy debate about reservoir operations will inevitably concern whether most, or all, reservoir storage should be in Lake Mead or in Lake Powell. The choice of one or the other will result in significantly different environmental and recreational outcomes for Glen Canyon and the Grand Canyon. This article is categorized under: Water and Life > Stresses and Pressures on Ecosystems Human Water > Water Governance Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change.