Assessment and Information System Establishment of the COVID-19 Impacts and countermeasures: Gray Prediction Model Applied in Analysis and Prediction

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 has had a huge impact on China's economic and social development, among which the tertiary industry has been severely impacted. As the epidemic prevention and control in China has achieved initial success and entered the normal prevention and control stage, it is very necessary to analyze the damage situation of industries directly affected by the epidemic. According to the historical data of various industries in China in the past five years, a grey prediction model was established to predict the normal development law of some economic indicators without an epidemic situation. Compared with the actual values in the first two quarters of 2020, we can estimate the economic and social losses caused by the COVID-19 epidemic. The epidemic has had the most serious impact on the tertiary industry, with retail, tourism, and catering sectors were hit hard. With the effective control of the epidemic, China's overall economic performance in the second quarter rose steadily. Many enterprises in the comprehensive service sector have been upgraded and transformed during the epidemic. From the current perspective, the epidemic will not have a serious impact on economic development throughout the year.