Temporal Trends in Absolute and Relative Extreme Temperature Events Across North America

Abstract

In this research, we define extreme temperature events using a recently defined excess heat factor, based on the exceedance of apparent temperature beyond the 95th percentile along with an acclimatization factor, to define extreme heat events (EHE). We extend the calculation to assess cold and develop relative metrics to complement the absolute metrics, where extremeness is based on conditions relative to season. We thus examine extreme cold events (ECE), relative extreme heat events, and relative extreme cold events in addition to EHE. We present a climatology of these variables for North America, followed by analyses of trends from 1980 to 2016. While EHE and ECE are found in the core of summer and winter, respectively, relative events tend to have a broader seasonality. Trends in relative extreme heat events and EHE are upward, and relative extreme cold events and ECE are downward; the relative events are changing more rapidly than the absolute events.