The relationship between satellite measured convective bursts and tropical cyclone intensification.

Abstract

The relationship between the mean temperature of the top of the cloud canopies and the future maximum winds of Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones is analyzed. The area-average cloud top temperatures from 309 observations of 12 tropical cyclones which occurred during 1974-79 were compiled from infrared measurements made by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. Maximum winds were obtained from best track records. The satellite measurements showed that prolonged surges of intense convection developed in the near region surrounding the depression centers before the maximum winds initially increased. The future maximum winds were compared with both the filtered area-average cloud top temperatures measured during the strong convective surges and the storm's intensities at the filtered temperature times using multiple linear regression. -from Authors