The Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2005: How Unique Is Ethiopia?

Abstract

We present the pace and nature of the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa in general, and eastern and southern Africa in particular, using the latest available data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs). Nearly all of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa have experienced the onset of fertility transition. However, the pace of decline is slow in several of these countries, and stalling of fertility decline is evident in some countries where fertility decline had begun. The stall occurred in both rural and urban areas. Since 1990, Ethiopia showed a decline in fertility from 6.6 in 1990 to 5.5 in 2000, then slowed down to 5.4 in 2005. Fertility transition in eastern and southern Africa is more advanced in urban areas, but at incipient level in rural areas. Around 2005, urban areas in 3 countries (Ethiopia, Namibia, and Zimbabwe) were in the advanced stage of fertility transition. Urban areas in Ethiopia have the lowest fertility among urban areas in eastern and southern Africa. Looking at fertility levels in capital cites in eastern and southern Africa, Addis Ababa stands out as the only city with below replacement fertility after the 1990s. In the 1990s, urban areas in six of the ten countries in this analysis had a contraceptive prevalence less than 20%. By around 2005, contraceptive prevalence surpassed above 30% in most urban areas of eastern and southern Africa. Overall, age at first marriage is increasing, however marriage during teenage years is still the norm in most countries in the sub region. The largest increase between ca. 1990 and ca. 2005 was in urban Ethiopia, in the order of around 2.5 years. In the 15 years span from ca. 1990 to ca. 2005 under-five mortality declined most rapidly by 43% in Malawi (a decline of 3.6% per year), by 41% in Ethiopia (a decline of 2.7% per year) and by 38% in Zambia (a decline of 2.5% per year). In conclusion, Ethiopia is unique from other sub-Saharan Africa countries in 4 major ways: well advanced fertility transition in urban areas (with only 16% of the population), but incipient (early-transition) fertility level in rural areas; significant increase in contraceptive use; rapid infant and child mortality decline; and a substantial decline in desire to have additional child in rural areas.