Zoneamento agroclimático de café robusta no Estado do Paraná e impactos das mudanças climáticas

Abstract

The aim of the study was the agroclimatic zoning of robusta coffee (Coffea canephora Pierre ex Froehner) in the state of Paraná, and to verify changes caused by temperature rise related to global warming, as predictions for the next 100 years reported by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). An alternative to keep coffee production in the state of Paraná will be the introduction of robusta coffee, original from Africa, adapted to areas with annual mean temperatures between 22 and 26°C. We used the historical weather database from IAPAR (Agronomic Institute of Paraná) and considered as apt for cropping the areas within the following conditions: risk of annual frost lower than 25% of probability, annual mean temperature between 22 and 26 °C, and annual water deficiency below 150 mm. The spatial analyzes were based on the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and crossed into the environment of a Geographic Information System (GIS), generating maps of the agroclimatic zoning of Coffea canephora for the current climate and scenarios of climate change with the addition of 1.8 and 4 °C in the mean temperature. The zoning for the current weather indicated that parts of northwestern and western regions of Paraná are suitable for cultivation. Under climate change scenarios, considering the rainfall regime unchanged, the area suitable for cultivation expands, justifying studies on this species in the state of Paraná.