Spatial modelling of land conversion vulnerability in Padang watersheds North Sumatera province

Abstract

The land use in the watersheds is the leading cause of the flood besides rainfall intensity. The objective of this study is to analyse land-use changes period 2000, 2010 and 2018, analyse the factors that influence land-use changes and analyse the level of the spatial distribution of land conversion vulnerability based on a GIS and remote sensing. Spatial modelling methods were used in this study by weighting and scoring on the factors triggering land conversion, namely biophysical land and socioeconomic. The results show that the enormous percentage change in land use between the years 2000-2010 was 49.09% in mixed dryland farming convert to dryland agriculture. While in the period 2010-2018 was an increase of 43.37 % in the fish pond. Factors that influence the chances of land conversion are biophysical and social factors such as population density and per capita income. The higher the population density tend to have, the greater the chance of a land conversion. The higher per capita income tends to have a smaller chance of a land conversion. Land conversion vulnerability in Padang Watersheds is at a vulnerable class of 50.38 % or 55,584.54 Hectares. Then in the class is very vulnerable at 27.38% or 30,213.97 Hectares.