QUANTIFYING the UNCERTAINTY of SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SOFT COSTS in the COST of RENEWABLE ENERGY SPREADSHEET TOOL (CREST) MODEL

Abstract

While solar photovoltaics are projected to grow, major financial barriers exist that impede installation. Soft costs (human-driven costs) can account for over half of total project costs and are often simplified in typical models. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Cost of Renewable Energy Spreadsheet Tool to quantify uncertainty of three soft cost inputs and their influence on the output cost of energy using variance-based sensitivity indices. We then suggest how the development process and model can be redesigned to represent the complexities of this socio-technical system.