Estimating the Ukrainian companies' financial potential and the probability of forced liquidation

Abstract

The development of a global economy is impossible without economic ups and downs, which disrupt economic stability. The growth of the crisis in Ukrainian companies is no exception. In world practice, there are many methods for estimating the possibility of companies' bankruptcy. At the same time, there are no methodological approaches to setting up the possible commencement of company's liquidation during its bankruptcy. The article aims to develop a methodology for estimating the possibility of company's liquidation due to the introduction of its bankruptcy procedure and to determine the financial potential of the company based on the Ukrainian economy. Statistical surveys about the activities of Ukrainian companies were conducted. Using a discriminant analysis, a four-factor model for estimating the possibility of companies' liquidation undergoing bankruptcy was developed. An appropriate scale has been constructed to interpret the values obtained using the collective expert estimation method. The matrix method was applied to construct matrices of pairwise comparison for the results of qualitative assessment. It has been proposed to assess the liquidation of a company by determining the conditional probability of such liquidation. A matrix of the pairwise comparison of the qualitative assessment results has been constructed for the company's bankruptcy procedure commencement probability and that for the company's liquidation procedure commencement. It has been substantiated that the level of the company's financial potential is the reverse indicator of the probability value for the bankruptcy and the liquidation of that company. Matrices have been constructed that qualitatively assess probabilistic level of the financial potential both for the companies at the bankruptcy stage and for those whose bankruptcy procedure has not yet begun. The results of the testing confirm the correctness of the proposed methods and the expediency of their application.