Global Megatrends and Resource Use – A Systemic Reflection

Abstract

The exponentially developing Global Megatrends of human society can be explained and modelled from a systemic perspective. Results show simultaneous exponential growth for population, energy consumption, raw materials extraction, GDP, pollution and climate change. The authors participated in the development of the WORLD6 system dynamics model to explain these trends and to explore what the future may hold. This was done based on the systemic approach in order to include feedback loops and changes in trends that may occur at later points in time. The modelling results allow to reproduce developments that are referred to as "Global Megatrends" in literature and that are used to proof the concept of the Anthropocene. While in the Global Megatrends literature and the Anthropocene literature exponential growth is based on empirical data we suggest taking a longer and systemic perspective on these global trends. Whether the trends are to level off, decline or crash depends to a large degree on future policies. We can confirm that the "rise and fall scenarios" are principally right in their analysis as well as the root causes. It is evident from our WORLD6 simulations that a business-as-usual scenario will lead to a decline of disruptive nature. It is also evident that the worst case scenario can be avoided by a careful design of policies, using the systems perspective assisted by dynamic model simulations. The German policies for an Energiewende (energy transition) must be linked to a future policy of Ressourcewende (resource transition) and a Nachhaltigkeitswende (sustainability transition). Such policies appear strategically appropriate and well founded in science.