Estimating IDF curves under changing climate conditions for different climate regions

Abstract

Although climate models can highlight potential shifts in intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves, their limited geographical and temporal resolutions limit their direct use in predicting sub-daily heavy precipitation. To use global or regional model outputs to predict urban short-term precipitation, approaches that give the requisite level of spatial and temporal downscaling are required, and these processes remain one of the difficulties that have demanded intensive effort in recent years. Although no novel methods are given in this work, there are few studies in the literature that investigate the impact of climate change on the analysis and design of infrastructure-related engineering structures. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to determine the potential changes in IDF curves because of climate change. The equi-distance quantile matching method was used to turn future rainfall forecast data from global climate models (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR, and GFDL-ESM2M) corresponding to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios into standard duration rainfall data, and new IDF curves were generated. These IDF curves corresponded very well with those generated from observed data (R2 ≈ 1). The HadGEM2-ES model predicts up to a 25% rise in rainfall intensity, whereas the other two models expect up to a 50% drop.