PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN PRODUK TIRAI MENGGUNAKAN METODE MOVING AVERAGE DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (Studi Kasus pada Meubel Sarira Waitatiri Maluku Tengah)

Abstract

This study aims to determine the most effective method of demand forecasting for curtain products at the Sarira furniture company in Waitatiri, Central Maluku, so that the production of the goods is not too many. The demand forecasting method used in this research is the Moving Average method and the Exponential Smoothing method. The methods analyzed are the 3-month and 5-month Moving Average methods, as well as Exponential Smoothing with values of 0.1, 0.5, and 0.9. The results of each method are compared based on the level of error. The calculation of how far a prediction is made is called the forecast error rate. This calculation is carried out for curtain products, and MSE is used to represent the error rate. The demand for curtains with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) is: moving average 3-month = 314.89. 5-month moving average = 222.29. Exponential Smoothing 0.1 = 256.82. Exponential Smoothing 0.5 = 290.09. Exponential Smoothing 0.9 = 393.09. So, the most efficient method for forecasting curtain products is the 5-month moving average method because the error rate or MSE of 222.29 is very small.