Smoke consequences of new wildfire regimes driven by climate change

Abstract

Smoke from wildfires has adverse biological and social consequences, and various lines of evidence suggest that smoke concentrations in the future may be more intense, more frequent, more widespread, or all of the above. In this document, we review the essential ingredients of a modeling system for projecting smoke consequences in a rapidly warming climate that is expected to change wildfire regimes significantly. We present relevant details of each component of the system, offer suggestions for the elements of a modeling agenda, and give some general guidelines for making choices among potential components. We address a prospective audience of researchers who we expect to be fluent already in building some or many of these components, so our guidelines are not prescriptive nor do they advocate particular models or software. Instead, our intent is to highlight fruitful ways of thinking about the task as a whole and its components, while providing substantial, if not exhaustive, documentation from the primary literature as reference