A Clustering Spatial Estimation of Marginal Economic Losses for Vegetation Due to the Emission of VOCs as a Precursor of Ozone

Abstract

The economic losses of vegetation caused by ozone were usually evaluated with existing ozone concentrations. However, in the case a new project is assessed, the marginal losses induced by the additional emissions of ozone’s precursors are required. As ozone is VOC-sensitive in China, this study used novel approaches to assess the marginal economic losses (MELs) for vegetation due to the emission of VOCs as a precursor of ozone, which integrated the geographically constrained AHC algorithm with the spatial regression and applied the cluster-specific coefficients of VOC emissions to the MEL estimation. The new approaches reduce the regression sigma2 from 94.5 to 64.6. The marginal contributions of VOC emissions to ozone concentrations range from 0.123 to 1.180 µg/m3 per kilotonne of emissions per year per 0.25 × 0.25 degree. Negative marginal contributions of NOx emissions were found in Southeast China and the Yunan Guizhou Plateau. County-level marginal increases in AOT40s and MELs due to VOC emissions for crops, semi-natural products, and coniferous and deciduous forests were presented as maps. These values are exceedingly large in Northeast China and the Yunan Guizhou Plateau. Due to the high timber prices, sensitivities to ozone, and long growing seasons, MELs of forests are higher than those of other vegetation types, and thus factories with VOC emissions should be away from the surrounding areas of forests.