Forecasting and making policies for postal services: System dynamics approach (Iran Post Company as a case study)

Abstract

The main objective of postal services is to deliver letter mails and parcels. By changing customers' needs and behaviors along with emerging new technologies, postal services have to be renovated. Thus, understanding the changing environment, forecasting the performance, identifying key drivers, and making effective interventions are critical to any further actions. Performing these actions for Iran Post Company is the focus of this paper. Therefore, system dynamic approach is chosen, effective variables are determined, and Causal-Loop Diagram (CLD) and Stock-to-Flow Diagram (SFD) are developed. The results are then validated using expert panels and historical data, and the developed model is utilized for policy making. Therefore, two scenarios are designed based on changes in postal rates, quality of services, and e-service market share. These scenarios could provide CEOs with critical information to make effective interventions.