Scenario building as a process and tool in urban governance

Abstract

Scenario building and related analysis is useful in several fields, ranging from military and business planning to its more recent applications in addressing global challenges such as climate change or economic crises. This chapter provides an overview of scenario building in urban governance. It introduces a corporate case (Shell) and then uses case studies on water and climate governance from the global South, specifically Lima (Peru), Guarulhos (Brazil), Durban (South Africa) and Dwarka (India) to illustrate the process of scenario building in practice. These case studies highlight the potential and challenges of scenario building as a process and tool in urban governance in fast-growing cities in emerging economies. The analysis reveals that the scenario-building process can be as important as its outcome, because the different perspectives of the participating actors, their understanding of the local context and mutual learning gained on the topic may influence their future plans and course of action. The socio-economic and political contexts of the cities under study play a significant role in shaping water governance issues, now and in the future.