Estimation of the Number of Early Migrants to Japan: A Simulative Study

Abstract

The number of migrants to Japan during the period of 1,000 years from the Aeneolithic Yayoi to early historic ages (ca. 300 B. C. to ca. 700 A. D.) were estimated by means of 2 models of simulation. One is the population growth model and the other the morphological change model. Both models provide almost the same estimates which suggest the number of the migrants might have been much greater than was expected. The total number of migrants from the Asian Continent is estimated to be more than a million by the 7th century and the proportion of the populations of native Jomon and migrant lineages was supposed to be roughly 1:9 or 2:8 in the protohistoric Kofun and early historic ages, at least in west Japan. Although the models applied in the present study are still immature, the results obtained seem to represent considerable significance for further analyses on the formation processes of the Japanese population.