Assessment of water resource security in karst area of Guizhou Province, China

Abstract

This paper presents the assessment of water resource security in the Guizhou karst area, China. A mean impact value and back-propagation (MIV-BP) neural network was used to understand the influencing factors. Thirty-one indices involving five aspects, the water quality subsystem, water quantity subsystem, engineering water shortage subsystem, water resource vulnerability subsystem, and water resource carrying capacity subsystem, were selected to establish an evaluation index of water resource security. In addition, a genetic algorithm and back-propagation (GA-BP) neural network was constructed to assess the water resource security of Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2015. The results show that water resource security in Guizhou was at a moderate warning level from 2001 to 2006 and a critical safety level from 2007 to 2015, except in 2011 when a moderate warning level was reached. For protection and management of water resources in a karst area, the modes of development and utilization of water resources must be thoroughly understood, along with the impact of engineering water shortage. These results are a meaningful contribution to regional ecological restoration and socio-economic development and can promote better practices for future planning.