Determinants of the Elderly Share of Population: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis

Abstract

COVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact on the elderly, who are over-represented among those who suffered severe illness or death. The obvious implication is that the share of the elderly in the population significantly affects the impact of COVID-19 on the overall health of a country. More generally, the elderly share has far-reaching economic and social ramifications. In this paper, we perform empirical analysis of cross-country data from 1970 to 2018 to identify the determinants of the share of the elderly—i.e., those aged 65 and over—in a country’s population. We find that the quality of health care, life expectancy, and female labor participation increases the elderly share while higher fertility and female education attainment lower the elderly share. In addition, we find that the share is higher for high income countries and countries in Europe and Central Asia.