Physical hybrid neural network model to forecast typhoon floods

Abstract

This study proposed a hybrid neural network model that combines a self-organizing map (SOM) and back-propagation neural networks (BPNNs) to model the rainfall-runoffprocess in a physically interpretable manner and to accurately forecast typhoon floods. The SOM and a two-stage clustering scheme were applied to group hydrologic data into four clusters, each of which represented a meaningful hydrologic component of the rainfall-runoffprocess. BPNNs were constructed for each cluster to achieve high forecasting capability. The physical hybrid neural network model was used to forecast typhoon flood discharges in Wu River in Taiwan by using two types of rainfall data. The clustering results demonstrated that the rainfall-runoffprocess was favorably described by the sequence of derived clusters. The flood forecasting results indicated that the proposed hybrid neural network model has good forecasting capability, and the performance of the models using the two types of rainfall data is similar. In addition, the derived lagged inputs are hydrologically meaningful, and the number and activation function of the hidden nodes can be rationally interpreted. This study also developed a traditional, single BPNN model trained using the whole calibration data for comparison with the hybrid neural network model. The proposed physical hybrid neural network model outperformed the traditional neural network model in forecasting the peak discharges and low flows.