Modelling the effects of global change on drinking water supply: The deepwatersupply decision model

Abstract

The DeepWaterSupply model described in this chapter presents an extension of the preliminary base version of the WaterSupply model presented in Chap. 27. It is based on the DeepActor approach presented in Chap. 3. Whereas the preliminary model strategy (see Chap. 27) is based on a fi xed assignment of extraction sites (supply) and communities (demand) to each water supply company (WSC) and on a fi xed maximum withdrawal, the DeepWaterSupply extension allows a dynamic, context-specifi c adaptation of the infrastructure or a fl exible use of resources. The Actors in this deep model are the water supply companies (WSC), who have the main goal to guarantee supply to all connected users. The WSC observe demand and supply. In case the demand exceeds the supply, the WSC takes actions, i.e. it chooses from predefi ned plans. Whether or not a plan is feasible and how it is performed depends on a variety of dynamic and static variables, including, for example, the status of the groundwater resources. This chapter describes the main components of the DeepWaterSupply model and the typical workfl ows of decision making. The most decisive factors infl uencing a WSCs decision to perform certain plans and actions are explained. Results are shown for different climatic and societal scenarios.