Recent improvements to global seasonal crop forecasting and related research

Abstract

Recent changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of weather and climate extremes and associated concerns for the stability of food supply and food price volatility in agricultural commodity markets underpin the importance of global crop monitoring and forecasting. Demands for monitoring and forecasting global food production remain high, even after the end of the food crises of 2010/2011. This article briefly overviews the progress during recent years and research outcomes regarding global seasonal crop forecasting achieved by National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO) and collaborators. The research topics include global seasonal crop forecasting (Sect. 7.2.1), climate oscillations and global yields (Sect. 7.2.2), climate change and yield variability (Sect. 7.2.3), and global crop datasets (Sect. 7.2.4). We also discuss issues that need to be addressed by future research to further strengthen existing global crop monitoring and forecasting systems in the face of unprecedented extreme weather episodes in a warmer climate.