Climate Change Assessment Based on Synphytoindication Method

Abstract

The proposed method of synphytoindication involves the quantification of external factors, including climatic ones, relying on the characteristics (features) of the plant cover. The method is based on quantitative indicators of the participation of plant communities-forming species with respect to their growth in certain ecological conditions, which enables researchers to employ a broad range of modern mathematical methods of data processing. The development of climatic scales uses grade-based indicators presented as quantitative scales, which permits the use of a broad arsenal of advanced mathematical methods of data processing. The climatic scales rely on grade-based indicators of species habitat amplitude. The outlines of species habitats have been superimposed on the isochore map that reflect hydrothermal regime: thermoclimate (Tm – 17 grades), cryoclimate (Cr – 15 grades), continentality (Kn – 17 grades), and ombroregime (Om – 23 grades). The focus is given to the correlation of grade-based scales and the indicators used in climatology: Tm – mean annual temperature; PAR, the period of active growing; Cr – mean temperatures of the coldest month, Io; Kn – Gorczynsky, Om – de Martonne index, Selyaninov hydrothermal index (HMI), and SPI. It has been shown that climate serves as the trigger mechanism producing an impact on soil edaphic properties as well, and such indirect influence on vegetation is sometimes stronger than the direct one. The analysis of correlations between climatic and other indicators has permitted us to assess the nonlinear development of eco-systems and reflects regional specificity. According to the calculation of the change in species and syntaxa existence conditions, the rise in mean annual temperatures by +1, +2, and +3° causes disturbance, non-recovery or collapse of respective ecosystems, which launches succession processes, leads to disappearance, migration, or to changes in the structures of species eco-niches. Some examples illustrate the feasibility of using synphytoindication method for assessing the climate-stabilizing role of forest ecosystems, their landscape, territorial, and temporal changes. The proposed synphytoindication method is an important instrument of investigating natural processes.