Disaster chain analysis of landfill landslide: Scenario simulation and chain-cutting modeling

Abstract

Landfill landslide is a man-made event that occurs when poorly managed garbage mounds at landfills collapse. It has become common in recent decades due to the rising waste volumes in cities. Normally, it is a complex process involving many disaster-causing factors and composed by many sequential sub-events. However, most current studies treat the landslide as a single and independent event and cannot give a full picture of the disaster. We propose a disaster chain analysis framework for landfill landslide in terms of scenario simulation and chain-cutting modeling. Each stage of the landfill landslide is modeled by taking advantage of various advanced techniques, e.g., remote sensing, 3DGIS, non-Newtonian fluid model, central finite difference scheme, and agentbase steering model. The 2015 Shenzhen "1220" landslide was firstly reviewed to summarize the general disaster chain model for landfill landslide. Guided by this model, we then proposed the specific steps for landfill landslide disaster chain analysis and applied them to another undergoing landfill, i.e., Xinwuwei landfill in Shenzhen, China. The scenario simulation in this landfill provides suggestions on potential hazardous risks and some applicable treatments. Through chain-cutting modeling, we further validated the effectiveness and feasibility of these treatments. The most optimized solution is subsequently deduced, which can provide support for disaster prevention and mitigation for this landfill.