Information and inference

Abstract

Inference is expressed using information and is therefore subject to the limitations of information. The conventions that determine the reliability of inference have developed in information ecosystems under the influence of a range of selection pressures. These conventions embed limitations in information measures like quality, pace and friction caused by selection trade-offs. Some selection pressures improve the reliability of inference; others diminish it by reinforcing the limitations of the conventions. This paper shows how to apply these ideas to inference in order to analyse the limitations; the analysis is applied to various theories of inference including examples from the philosophies of science and mathematics as well as machine learning. The analysis highlights the limitations of these theories and how different, seemingly competing, ideas about inference can relate to each other.