An Environmental Risk Evaluation Method Employing Atmospheric Dispersion Models and GIS

Abstract

This study aims to develop a method for evaluating the environmental risk of harmful chemical substances released from specific sources, using two atmospheric dispersion models and GIS (Geographic Information Systems). In the first stage of evaluation, ADMER was used to conduct a wide-area evaluation which covered the entire area of the evaluation target region. In the second stage, METI-LIS was used to conduct a detailed limited-area evaluation which targeted the vicinity of sources. In this study, incinerators were selected as sources and dioxins were selected as harmful chemical substances. The area selected for evaluation was the Tokyo Metropolis in Japan, and the evaluation method proposed in this study was used to evaluate environmental risk. Through the use of atmospheric dispersion models and GIS, the behavior of dioxins emitted into the atmosphere from incinerators was estimated. By superimposing atmospheric levels and population data, the amounts of dioxins that humans exposed to were found. Additionally, by superimposing deposition amounts and land use data, the amounts of dioxins accumulated in each land environment were found. Conducting these steps enabled the impact of dioxins on humans and the environment to be grasped quantitatively and visually, and the risk that dioxins emitted from incinerators pose to the environment to be evaluated.