Evaluating Biosignatures for Life Detection

Abstract

Conceptual frameworks are developed for evaluating the ability of different biosignatures to provide evidence for the presence of life in planned missions or observational studies. The focus is on intrinsic characteristics of biosignatures in space environments rather than on their detection, which depends on technology. Evaluation procedures are drawn from extensive studies in decision theory on related problems in business, engineering, medical fields, and the social arena. Three approaches are particularly useful. Two of them, Signal Detection Theory and Bayesian hypothesis testing, are based on probabilities. The third approach is based on utility theory. In all the frameworks, knowledge about a subject matter has to be translated into probabilities and/or utilities in a multistep process called elicitation. We present the first attempt to cover all steps, from acquiring knowledge about biosignatures to assigning probabilities or utilities to global quantities, such as false positives and false negatives. Since elicitation involves human judgment that is always prone to perceptual and cognitive biases, the relevant biases are discussed and illustrated in examples. We further discuss at which stage of elicitation human judgment should be involved to ensure the most reliable outcomes. An example, how evaluating biosignatures might be implemented, is given in the Supplementary Information.