SIMON: A Digital Protocol to Monitor and Predict Suicidal Ideation

Abstract

Each year, more than 800,000 persons die by suicide, making it a leading cause of death worldwide. Recent innovations in information and communication technology may offer new opportunities in suicide prevention in individuals, hereby potentially reducing this number. In our project, we design digital indices based on both self-reports and passive mobile sensing and test their ability to predict suicidal ideation, a major predictor for suicide, and psychiatric hospital readmission in high-risk individuals: psychiatric patients after discharge who were admitted in the context of suicidal ideation or a suicidal attempt, or expressed suicidal ideations during their intake. Specifically, two smartphone applications -one for self-reports (SIMON-SELF) and one for passive mobile sensing (SIMON-SENSE)- are installed on participants' smartphones. SIMON-SELF uses a text-based chatbot, called Simon, to guide participants along the study protocol and to ask participants questions about suicidal ideation and relevant other psychological variables five times a day. These self-report data are collected for four consecutive weeks after study participants are discharged from the hospital. SIMON-SENSE collects behavioral variables -such as physical activity, location, and social connectedness- parallel to the first application. We aim to include 100 patients over 12 months to test whether (1) implementation of the digital protocol in such a high-risk population is feasible, and (2) if suicidal ideation and psychiatric hospital readmission can be predicted using a combination of psychological indices and passive sensor information. To this end, a predictive algorithm for suicidal ideation and psychiatric hospital readmission using various learning algorithms (e.g., random forest and support vector machines) and multilevel models will be constructed. Data collected on the basis of psychological theory and digital phenotyping may, in the future and based on our results, help reach vulnerable individuals early and provide links to just-in-time and cost-effective interventions or establish prompt mental health service contact. The current effort may thus lead to saving lives and significantly reduce economic impact by decreasing inpatient treatment and days lost to inability.