Mitigating Carbon Emissions: A Comprehensive Analysis of Transitioning to Hydrogen-Powered Plants in Japan’s Energy Landscape Post-Fukushima

Abstract

One of the impacts of the Fukushima disaster was the shutdown of all nuclear power plants in Japan, reaching zero production in 2015. In response, the country started importing more fossil energy including coal, oil, and natural gas to fill the energy gap. However, this led to a significant increase in carbon emissions, hindering the efforts to reduce its carbon footprint. In the current situation, Japan is actively working to balance its energy requirements with environmental considerations, including the utilization of hydrogen fuel. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the feasibility and implications of using hydrogen power plants as a means to reduce emissions, and this analysis will be conducted using the energy modeling of the MARKAL-TIMES Japan framework. The hydrogen scenario (HS) is assumed with the extensive integration of hydrogen into the power generation sector, supported by a hydrogen import scheme. Additionally, this scenario will be compared with the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. The results showed that the generation capacities of the BAU and HS scenarios have significantly different primary energy supplies. The BAU scenario is highly dependent on fossil fuels, while the HS scenario integrates hydrogen contribution along with an increase in renewable energy, reaching a peak contribution of 2,160 PJ in 2050. In the HS scenario, the target of reducing CO2 emissions by 80% is achieved through significant hydrogen penetration. By 2050, the total CO2 emissions are estimated to be 939 million tons for the BAU scenario and 261 million tons for the Hydrogen scenario. In addition, the contribution of hydrogen to electricity generation is expected to be 153 TWh, smaller than PV and wind power.