Physical disaggregation of numerical model rainfall

Abstract

A methodology is presented for the disaggregation of numerical model fields of convective rainfall using a physically based procedure. The scheme uses surface sensible heat flux values derived from high-resolution multichannel satellite radiometer observations. The sensible heat flux values initialise a simple convective model to calculate the convective disaggregation parameter (CDP), which is theoretically proportional to the convective rainfall rate. The CDP diagnostic parameter can be derived as a one-time field if the surface characteristics are invariant, as a seasonal value may be, or it may be evaluated on a case by case basis. Once found, the CDP can be used to disaggregate numerical weather prediction (NWP) convective rainfall fields for as far ahead as such fields are produced.