Assessment of Uncertainty in Flood Flows under Climate Change Impacts in the Upper Thames River Basin, Canada

Abstract

ISSN: (print) 1913-3200; (online) 1913-3219; ISBN: (print) 978-0-7714-2960-6; (online) 978-0-7714-2961-3; Assessment of uncertainty in flood flows under climate change -the Upper Thames River basin (Ontario, Canada) Abstract The assessment of climate change impacts on frequency and magnitude of flood flows is important for flood risk management. It is recognized that existing methods for the assessment of climate change impacts are subject to various sources of uncertainty (choice of climate model, choice of emission scenario, course spatial and temporal scales, etc.). This study investigates the climate change related uncertainty in the flood flows for the Upper Thames River basin (Ontario, Canada) using a wide range of climate model scenarios. Fifteen different climate model scenarios from a combination of six Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) and three emission scenarios " A1B " , " B1 " and " A2 " out of the family of