Can China promote stability in the Black Sea Region?

Abstract

China has become an increasingly important actor in the Black Sea Region (BSR), and this looks set to continue in the future. Beijing has actively engaged with all of the Black Sea states and has looked to invest largely, but not exclusively, in ports and infrastructure projects as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This article examines Beijing’s growing influence in the Black Sea and explores the effect this will have on the region. It will be argued that China’s engagement is seen by some of the littoral states as an important way of balancing Russian influence in the region and Beijing’s presence is likely to lead to a recalibration of Russian behaviour in the BSR. Chinese engagement in the Black Sea might therefore serve as a force for stability or at least encourage the continuation of the status quo, by limiting Russian revanchism, as Moscow will be increasingly sensitive to Beijing’s interest and investments.