The Elephants: The Giant Oil Fields

Abstract

“Study the past if you would define the future” is a famous saying of Confucius (551-479 BC) (The illustration in Fig. 9.1 is based on a photograph of a carving in Xi’an). The analysis of historical trends is a common form of research. Sometimes, extrapolation of trends is the only way we know to make predictions about the future. Nevertheless, we must be aware that such methods are not precise and divergence of the future from our expectations is possible. When making predictions of the future we must always clearly indicate the conditions and assumptions upon which the predictions are based. By doing so we will be prepared to change our predictions if, for example, new political decisions are made or new facts come to light (Fig. 9.1).